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FA WSL · England
Everton W vs Birmingham City W prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Everton W host Birmingham City W in the FA WSL (England) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Everton W 2–1 Birmingham City W.
Going into the match, Everton W had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 8 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Birmingham City W had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 8, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Everton W's last 8 and 4 of Birmingham City W's last 8; 1 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Everton W averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Birmingham City W averaged 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Everton W and 1.20 from Birmingham City W. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 31%, against 51%, 25% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Everton W (green) and Birmingham City W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton W | LWWWL | 0.75 | 1.00 | 13% | 13% |
| Birmingham City W | LDLLD | 1.38 | 2.38 | 50% | 63% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Sep 2026 · Everton W 2–0 Birmingham City W
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Everton W Win | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.