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Primera División · Chile
Everton de Vina vs D. La Serena prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Everton de Vina host D. La Serena in the Primera División (Chile) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Everton de Vina 3–2 D. La Serena.
Going into the match, Everton de Vina had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 12. D. La Serena had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Everton de Vina's last 10 and 6 of D. La Serena's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Everton de Vina averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home D. La Serena averaged 1.50 scored and 1.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.77 goals from Everton de Vina and 1.17 from D. La Serena. From that it rates a home win at 70%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 13%, against 54%, 25% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 44%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Everton de Vina (green) and D. La Serena (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton de Vina | LDWLW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 70% | 50% |
| D. La Serena | LWWDW | 1.50 | 1.80 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · D. La Serena 1–0 Everton de Vina
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Everton de Vina Win | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.