Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo prediction and preview

18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.44Market probability 65%Final score 1–2

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Estudiantes L.P. host San Lorenzo in the Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina) on 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Estudiantes L.P. 1–2 San Lorenzo.

Going into the match, Estudiantes L.P. had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. San Lorenzo had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 4 scored and 10 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Estudiantes L.P.'s last 10 and 1 of San Lorenzo's last 10; 5 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estudiantes L.P. averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.72 conceded across 18 matches; away from home San Lorenzo averaged 0.50 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.24 goals from Estudiantes L.P. and 0.51 from San Lorenzo. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 14%, against 40%, 34% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Estudiantes L.P. (green) and San Lorenzo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack73% – 27%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head36% – 64%

Goals43% – 57%

Overall strength55% – 44%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Estudiantes L.P.	DDWLL	1.10	1.10	50%	50%
San Lorenzo	WLLDW	0.40	1.00	10%	10%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	75%	1.25
Double Chance 1X	74%	1.22
Under 2.5 Goals	65%	1.44
Over 1.5 Goals	60%	1.53
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	60%	1.57
BTTS No	57%	1.62
Estudiantes L.P. Win	40%	2.40
Under 1.5 Goals	40%	2.38

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.