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Liga Nacional · Honduras
Estrella Roja vs Real Espana prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estrella Roja host Real Espana in the Liga Nacional (Honduras) on 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 52% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Estrella Roja 0–1 Real Espana.
Going into the match, Estrella Roja had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 8 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Real Espana had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Estrella Roja's last 8 and 6 of Real Espana's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estrella Roja averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Real Espana averaged 1.50 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Estrella Roja and 1.95 from Real Espana. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 57%, against 22%, 26% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estrella Roja (green) and Real Espana (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrella Roja | LDLDW | 1.63 | 2.00 | 50% | 63% |
| Real Espana | WDWWD | 1.60 | 0.80 | 60% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.68 |
| Real Espana Win | 52% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Real Espana HT & FT | 36% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.