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Estonia vs Luxembourg prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estonia host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg.
Going into the match, Estonia had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 1. Luxembourg had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4, with 3 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Estonia's last 4 and 1 of Luxembourg's last 4; 0 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estonia averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Luxembourg averaged 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 32% for Estonia, 30% for the draw and 37% for Luxembourg once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estonia (green) and Luxembourg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | DDWW | 0.75 | 0.25 | 25% | 0% |
| Luxembourg | LWWL | 0.75 | 1.25 | 25% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 4 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Luxembourg Win | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.