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Estonia vs Iceland prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estonia host Iceland in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Estonia 0–0 Iceland.
Going into the match, Estonia had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 1. Iceland had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with 7 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Estonia's last 5 and 1 of Iceland's last 5; 0 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estonia averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Iceland averaged 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded across 3.
The 1X2 prices imply about 17% for Estonia, 23% for the draw and 60% for Iceland once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estonia (green) and Iceland (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 5 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Sep 2026 · Iceland 1–1 Estonia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Iceland Win | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.