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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Estepona vs Don Benito prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estepona host Don Benito in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Estepona to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Estepona 3–1 Don Benito.
Going into the match, Estepona had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Don Benito had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 9, with 18 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Estepona's last 10 and 3 of Don Benito's last 9; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estepona averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Don Benito averaged 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.02 goals from Estepona and 1.82 from Don Benito. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 35%, against 45%, 29% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estepona (green) and Don Benito (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estepona | LWLDW | 1.70 | 1.40 | 80% | 70% |
| Don Benito | WDWWD | 2.00 | 0.44 | 33% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.76 |
| Estepona Win | 45% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.