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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estepona host Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 24 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Estepona to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Estepona had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Ciudad de Lucena had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Estepona's last 10 and 5 of Ciudad de Lucena's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estepona averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Ciudad de Lucena averaged 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Estepona and 1.77 from Ciudad de Lucena. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 43%, against 48%, 27% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estepona | DWWLW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Ciudad de Lucena | WWWWL | 1.90 | 1.00 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.82 |
| Estepona Win | 48% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Estepona HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Estepona form and statistics
- Ciudad de Lucena form and statistics
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 statistics
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 matches that day
- Recreativo Huelva vs Antoniano · 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: Recreativo Huelva Win @ 1.33 - Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Betis II · 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.63