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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Estepona vs Atlético Central prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estepona host Atlético Central in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.73, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Estepona 3–2 Atlético Central.
Going into the match, Estepona had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. Atlético Central had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Estepona's last 10 and 5 of Atlético Central's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estepona averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Atlético Central averaged 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.06 goals from Estepona and 1.26 from Atlético Central. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 22%, against 54%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 36%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estepona (green) and Atlético Central (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estepona | WLWLD | 1.80 | 1.40 | 80% | 70% |
| Atlético Central | LWLLW | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Estepona Win | 53% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.81 |
| Estepona HT & FT | 36% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.