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Serie D - Girone C · Italy
Este vs Conegliano prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Este host Conegliano in the Serie D - Girone C (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Este to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Este 2–1 Conegliano.
Going into the match, Este had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 9. Conegliano had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 6 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Este's last 10 and 3 of Conegliano's last 9; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Este averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Conegliano averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Este and 0.49 from Conegliano. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 40% and an away win at 18%, against 43%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Este (green) and Conegliano (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Este | DLLLW | 0.80 | 0.90 | 30% | 20% |
| Conegliano | LWWDL | 0.67 | 1.00 | 33% | 22% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.78 |
| Este Win | 43% | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.