Home › League stats › Ligue 1 › Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Ligue 1 · France
Estac Troyes vs Marseille prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estac Troyes host Marseille in the Ligue 1 (France) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Estac Troyes 0–2 Marseille.
Going into the match, Estac Troyes had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 17. Marseille had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Estac Troyes's last 10 and 6 of Marseille's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estac Troyes averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Marseille averaged 0.33 scored and 2.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.32 goals from Estac Troyes and 1.60 from Marseille. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 43%, against 25%, 25% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estac Troyes (green) and Marseille (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | DLLLW | 1.60 | 1.70 | 60% | 50% |
| Marseille | LLLLL | 1.40 | 1.90 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Marseille Win | 49% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.