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Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
ES Metlaoui host Stade Tunisien in the Ligue 1 (Tunisia) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Stade Tunisien to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: ES Metlaoui 1–2 Stade Tunisien.
Going into the match, ES Metlaoui had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Stade Tunisien had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 9, with 8 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of ES Metlaoui's last 10 and 5 of Stade Tunisien's last 9; 2 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home ES Metlaoui averaged 0.83 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Stade Tunisien averaged 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from ES Metlaoui and 1.23 from Stade Tunisien. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 43%, against 28%, 33% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between ES Metlaoui (green) and Stade Tunisien (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Metlaoui | LWLLL | 0.70 | 0.90 | 30% | 20% |
| Stade Tunisien | WLDWD | 0.89 | 1.11 | 56% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 74% | 1.28 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.52 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 57% | 1.64 |
| Stade Tunisien Win | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.70 |
| 0-0 | 21% | 4.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.