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Esiliiga A · Estonia
Elva vs Tallinna Kalev prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Nike Arena, Elva
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Elva host Tallinna Kalev in the Esiliiga A (Estonia) on 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Elva Over 1.5 Goals — Elva Over 1.5 Goals. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Elva had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Tallinna Kalev had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Elva's last 10 and 9 of Tallinna Kalev's last 10; 5 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Elva averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Tallinna Kalev averaged 2.21 scored and 2.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Elva and 1.43 from Tallinna Kalev. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 42%, 22% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Elva (green) and Tallinna Kalev (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elva | DDLWD | 1.10 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
| Tallinna Kalev | WLLLL | 1.40 | 2.40 | 90% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Sep 2026 · Elva 3–2 Tallinna Kalev
- 15 Aug 2026 · Tallinna Kalev 1–0 Elva
- 24 May 2026 · Elva 3–1 Tallinna Kalev
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 64% | 1.44 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Elva Win | 43% | 2.15 |
| Elva HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
| 2-2 | 12% | 8.00 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.