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Challenge Cup · Scotland
Elgin City vs Aberdeen U21 prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Elgin City host Aberdeen U21 in the Challenge Cup (Scotland) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Elgin City 0–1 Aberdeen U21.
Going into the match, Elgin City had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 12. Aberdeen U21 had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Elgin City's last 10 and 8 of Aberdeen U21's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Elgin City averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Aberdeen U21 averaged 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.18 goals from Elgin City and 1.50 from Aberdeen U21. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 26%, against 54%, 22% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Elgin City (green) and Aberdeen U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin City | WWWWL | 2.70 | 1.20 | 40% | 70% |
| Aberdeen U21 | LLWDW | 2.20 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.47 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.65 |
| Elgin City Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| Elgin City HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.