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La Liga · Spain
Elche vs Celta Vigo prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Elche host Celta Vigo in the La Liga (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Elche 0–0 Celta Vigo.
Going into the match, Elche had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 21. Celta Vigo had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Elche's last 10 and 5 of Celta Vigo's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Elche averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Celta Vigo averaged 0.92 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.06 goals from Elche and 1.13 from Celta Vigo. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 36%, against 32%, 29% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Elche (green) and Celta Vigo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | WLDLL | 1.50 | 2.10 | 80% | 70% |
| Celta Vigo | WLDDD | 1.30 | 0.90 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Celta Vigo 3–1 Elche
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.