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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Elche II vs Ucam Murcia prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Elche II host Ucam Murcia in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Ucam Murcia to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Elche II 1–5 Ucam Murcia.
Going into the match, Elche II had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Ucam Murcia had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 8, with 13 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Elche II's last 9 and 5 of Ucam Murcia's last 8; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Elche II averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Ucam Murcia averaged 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.05 goals from Elche II and 1.87 from Ucam Murcia. From that it rates a home win at 20%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 56%, against 31%, 25% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Elche II (green) and Ucam Murcia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche II | LWLDW | 0.89 | 1.33 | 33% | 33% |
| Ucam Murcia | LWWLL | 1.63 | 1.50 | 63% | 75% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Ucam Murcia Win | 44% | 2.05 |
| Ucam Murcia HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.