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Primera C · Argentina
El Porvenir vs Canuelas prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
El Porvenir host Canuelas in the Primera C (Argentina) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Canuelas to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: El Porvenir 1–1 Canuelas.
Going into the match, El Porvenir had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Canuelas had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of El Porvenir's last 10 and 4 of Canuelas's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home El Porvenir averaged 0.58 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Canuelas averaged 1.50 scored and 0.67 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.72 goals from El Porvenir and 1.37 from Canuelas. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 51%, against 25%, 31% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between El Porvenir (green) and Canuelas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Porvenir | LLWLW | 1.00 | 1.50 | 30% | 40% |
| Canuelas | WWWWW | 1.50 | 0.90 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 7 Jun 2026 · Canuelas 0–0 El Porvenir
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.28 |
| BTTS No | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Canuelas Win | 44% | 2.05 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.