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USL Championship · USA
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
El Paso Locomotive host Orange County SC in the USL Championship (USA) on 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: El Paso Locomotive 2–1 Orange County SC.
Going into the match, El Paso Locomotive had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Orange County SC had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of El Paso Locomotive's last 10 and 5 of Orange County SC's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home El Paso Locomotive averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Orange County SC averaged 1.62 scored and 1.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.20 goals from El Paso Locomotive and 1.11 from Orange County SC. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 17%, against 57%, 23% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between El Paso Locomotive (green) and Orange County SC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | LDWWW | 1.90 | 0.80 | 60% | 60% |
| Orange County SC | LWLLD | 0.90 | 2.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Orange County SC 2–0 El Paso Locomotive
- 26 Apr 2026 · Orange County SC 1–2 El Paso Locomotive
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| El Paso Locomotive Win | 58% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.