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Challenge Cup · Scotland
East Kilbride vs Kelty Hearts prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
East Kilbride host Kelty Hearts in the Challenge Cup (Scotland) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is East Kilbride Win — East Kilbride to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: East Kilbride 2–1 Kelty Hearts.
Going into the match, East Kilbride had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 18. Kelty Hearts had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of East Kilbride's last 10 and 7 of Kelty Hearts's last 10; 9 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home East Kilbride averaged 3.50 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Kelty Hearts averaged 0.92 scored and 1.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 4.13 goals from East Kilbride and 1.42 from Kelty Hearts. From that it rates a home win at 83%, a draw at 10% and an away win at 8%, against 63%, 19% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between East Kilbride (green) and Kelty Hearts (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | DWLDW | 2.20 | 1.80 | 70% | 90% |
| Kelty Hearts | LWWLL | 1.70 | 2.20 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · East Kilbride 4–0 Kelty Hearts
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.34 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.40 |
| East Kilbride Win | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 52% | 1.79 |
| East Kilbride HT & FT | 45% | 2.10 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.