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Women's Championship · England
Durham W vs Newcastle United W prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Durham W host Newcastle United W in the Women's Championship (England) on 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Newcastle United W Win — Newcastle United W to win. It was published at odds of 1.27, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Durham W 0–3 Newcastle United W.
Going into the match, Durham W had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 7 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 19. Newcastle United W had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 7, with 13 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Durham W's last 7 and 3 of Newcastle United W's last 7; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Durham W averaged 1.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Newcastle United W averaged 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.90 goals from Durham W and 3.24 from Newcastle United W. From that it rates a home win at 6%, a draw at 12% and an away win at 82%, against 12%, 18% and 70% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Durham W (green) and Newcastle United W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham W | LLLLL | 1.29 | 2.71 | 86% | 86% |
| Newcastle United W | LWWWW | 1.86 | 1.00 | 43% | 57% |
Averages over each side's last 7 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 May 2026 · Newcastle United W 0–1 Durham W
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United W Win | 70% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Newcastle United W 1st Half Win | 55% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.70 |
| Newcastle United W HT & FT | 51% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.85 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 35% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.