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Liga Premier Serie A · Mexico
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dragones de Oaxaca host Real Refineros in the Liga Premier Serie A (Mexico) on 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Dragones de Oaxaca Win — Dragones de Oaxaca to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Dragones de Oaxaca 3–2 Real Refineros.
Going into the match, Dragones de Oaxaca had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Real Refineros had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5, with 7 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Dragones de Oaxaca's last 5 and 3 of Real Refineros's last 5; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dragones de Oaxaca averaged 2.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Real Refineros averaged 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.08 goals from Dragones de Oaxaca and 0.92 from Real Refineros. From that it rates a home win at 80%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 7%, against 61%, 20% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dragones de Oaxaca (green) and Real Refineros (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dragones de Oaxaca | DWDWW | 2.20 | 1.00 | 60% | 60% |
| Real Refineros | DDDWL | 1.40 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 5 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Dragones de Oaxaca Win | 61% | 1.45 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.58 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Dragones de Oaxaca HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.