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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Dolomiti Bellunesi vs Novara prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dolomiti Bellunesi host Novara in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Dolomiti Bellunesi 1–2 Novara.
Going into the match, Dolomiti Bellunesi had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 8. Novara had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Dolomiti Bellunesi's last 10 and 4 of Novara's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dolomiti Bellunesi averaged 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Novara averaged 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Dolomiti Bellunesi and 0.97 from Novara. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 35%, against 33%, 30% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dolomiti Bellunesi (green) and Novara (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolomiti Bellunesi | DLDDW | 1.00 | 0.80 | 60% | 40% |
| Novara | LDDLW | 0.80 | 1.10 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.