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Ligue 2 · France
Dijon vs Metz prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dijon host Metz in the Ligue 2 (France) on 12 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Dijon 4–2 Metz.
Going into the match, Dijon had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 14. Metz had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Dijon's last 10 and 8 of Metz's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dijon averaged 2.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Metz averaged 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.07 goals from Dijon and 2.17 from Metz. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 41%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 39%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dijon (green) and Metz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.