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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Derthona vs Alessandria prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Derthona host Alessandria in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Derthona 1–3 Alessandria.
Going into the match, Derthona had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Alessandria had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Derthona's last 10 and 4 of Alessandria's last 5; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derthona averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Alessandria averaged 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded across 2.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Derthona and 1.58 from Alessandria. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 43%, against 35%, 30% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Derthona (green) and Alessandria (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derthona | DWWDW | 1.00 | 0.70 | 50% | 20% |
| Alessandria | WWLWW | 1.80 | 1.40 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Derthona Win | 35% | 2.55 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.