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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Derio vs Beasain prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Derio host Beasain in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Derio to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Derio 2–0 Beasain.
Going into the match, Derio had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Beasain had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Derio's last 10 and 6 of Beasain's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derio averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Beasain averaged 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Derio and 1.10 from Beasain. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 29%, against 44%, 29% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Derio (green) and Beasain (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Derio Win | 44% | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.10 |
| Derio HT & FT | 27% | 3.40 |
| 1-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.