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Championship · England
Derby vs Wrexham prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Derby host Wrexham in the Championship (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Derby 1–1 Wrexham.
Going into the match, Derby had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 17. Wrexham had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Derby's last 10 and 5 of Wrexham's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derby averaged 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Wrexham averaged 0.64 scored and 1.27 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Derby and 1.26 from Wrexham. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 43%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 83%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Derby (green) and Wrexham (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 11.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.