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Division Profesional - Clausura · Paraguay
Deportivo Recoleta vs Libertad Asuncion prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 22:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportivo Recoleta host Libertad Asuncion in the Division Profesional - Clausura (Paraguay) on 3 Oct 2026, 22:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 Libertad Asuncion.
Going into the match, Deportivo Recoleta had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 19. Libertad Asuncion had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Deportivo Recoleta's last 10 and 5 of Libertad Asuncion's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportivo Recoleta averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Libertad Asuncion averaged 1.00 scored and 1.64 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Deportivo Recoleta and 1.74 from Libertad Asuncion. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 48%, against 22%, 26% and 52% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Deportivo Recoleta (green) and Libertad Asuncion (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Recoleta | DWLLL | 0.90 | 1.90 | 50% | 60% |
| Libertad Asuncion | LDDWW | 1.20 | 1.00 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 Jul 2026 · Libertad Asuncion 4–1 Deportivo Recoleta
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Libertad Asuncion Win | 52% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.