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Primera A · Colombia
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar prediction and preview
20 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportivo Pasto host Alianza Valledupar in the Primera A (Colombia) on 20 Oct 2026, 01:05 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar.
Going into the match, Deportivo Pasto had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 15. Alianza Valledupar had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Deportivo Pasto's last 10 and 6 of Alianza Valledupar's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportivo Pasto averaged 0.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Alianza Valledupar averaged 0.70 scored and 1.40 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.14 goals from Deportivo Pasto and 1.22 from Alianza Valledupar. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 37%, against 56%, 27% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Deportivo Pasto (green) and Alianza Valledupar (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | DLWWL | 0.70 | 1.50 | 40% | 40% |
| Alianza Valledupar | DLWLW | 1.00 | 2.10 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Deportivo Pasto Win | 54% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.