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Primera C · Argentina
Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportivo Paraguayo host Mercedes in the Primera C (Argentina) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Mercedes to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportivo Paraguayo 1–1 Mercedes.
Going into the match, Deportivo Paraguayo had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Mercedes had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Deportivo Paraguayo's last 10 and 3 of Mercedes's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportivo Paraguayo averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Mercedes averaged 0.73 scored and 1.09 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.85 goals from Deportivo Paraguayo and 1.09 from Mercedes. From that it rates a home win at 27%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 39%, against 24%, 31% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Deportivo Paraguayo (green) and Mercedes (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Paraguayo | DWLWD | 1.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Mercedes | WWDLL | 0.80 | 1.20 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Jun 2026 · Mercedes 0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.59 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 57% | 1.63 |
| Under 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Mercedes Win | 46% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.