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Primera División · Uruguay
Deportivo Maldonado vs Central Espanol prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportivo Maldonado host Central Espanol in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 3 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportivo Maldonado 3–0 Central Espanol.
Going into the match, Deportivo Maldonado had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 5. Central Espanol had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Deportivo Maldonado's last 10 and 6 of Central Espanol's last 10; 2 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportivo Maldonado averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Central Espanol averaged 0.89 scored and 1.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.25 goals from Deportivo Maldonado and 0.57 from Central Espanol. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 18% and an away win at 7%, against 57%, 24% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Deportivo Maldonado (green) and Central Espanol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | WWWLW | 1.60 | 0.50 | 20% | 20% |
| Central Espanol | LLDDW | 1.20 | 1.60 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Deportivo Maldonado Win | 57% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.