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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Deportivo Alavés II vs Gernika prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportivo Alavés II host Gernika in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportivo Alavés II 1–1 Gernika.
Going into the match, Deportivo Alavés II had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 10. Gernika had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 9, with 15 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Deportivo Alavés II's last 10 and 5 of Gernika's last 9; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportivo Alavés II averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Gernika averaged 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from Deportivo Alavés II and 1.39 from Gernika. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 33%, against 48%, 29% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Deportivo Alavés II (green) and Gernika (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés II | WWWWL | 1.90 | 1.00 | 50% | 60% |
| Gernika | LDWWD | 1.67 | 0.78 | 56% | 56% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Gernika 0–0 Deportivo Alavés II
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.71 |
| Deportivo Alavés II Win | 48% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Deportivo Alavés II HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
| 1-0 | 15% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.