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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Deportiva Minera vs Castellonense prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportiva Minera host Castellonense in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.70, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportiva Minera 3–2 Castellonense.
Going into the match, Deportiva Minera had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 5. Castellonense had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Deportiva Minera's last 10 and 5 of Castellonense's last 10; 1 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportiva Minera averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Castellonense averaged 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from Deportiva Minera and 1.07 from Castellonense. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 30%, against 53%, 26% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Deportiva Minera (green) and Castellonense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportiva Minera | WLDDW | 0.90 | 0.50 | 10% | 10% |
| Castellonense | WLWWW | 1.50 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.78 |
| Deportiva Minera Win | 51% | 1.70 |
| Deportiva Minera HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.