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Primera B · Chile
Deportes Santa Cruz vs San Marcos de Arica prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Deportes Santa Cruz host San Marcos de Arica in the Primera B (Chile) on 3 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Deportes Santa Cruz 1–2 San Marcos de Arica.
Going into the match, Deportes Santa Cruz had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 10. San Marcos de Arica had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Deportes Santa Cruz's last 10 and 6 of San Marcos de Arica's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Deportes Santa Cruz averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home San Marcos de Arica averaged 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Deportes Santa Cruz and 0.82 from San Marcos de Arica. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 26%, against 39%, 29% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Santa Cruz | LLDWD | 0.60 | 1.00 | 40% | 30% |
| San Marcos de Arica | WLWLL | 1.00 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| Deportes Santa Cruz Win | 39% | 2.30 |
| 1-0 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.