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Denmark vs Portugal prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Denmark host Portugal in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Denmark 2–4 Portugal.
Going into the match, Denmark had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Portugal had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 9, with 15 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Denmark's last 4 and 5 of Portugal's last 9; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Denmark averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Portugal averaged 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 27% for Denmark, 25% for the draw and 48% for Portugal once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Denmark (green) and Portugal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Portugal Win | 48% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.