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Torneo Federal A · Argentina
Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Defensores de Vilelas host Gimnasia Chivilcoy in the Torneo Federal A (Argentina) on 10 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy.
Going into the match, Defensores de Vilelas had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 12. Gimnasia Chivilcoy had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Defensores de Vilelas's last 10 and 3 of Gimnasia Chivilcoy's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Defensores de Vilelas averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Gimnasia Chivilcoy averaged 0.75 scored and 0.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Defensores de Vilelas and 1.22 from Gimnasia Chivilcoy. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 35%, against 34%, 31% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Defensores de Vilelas (green) and Gimnasia Chivilcoy (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores de Vilelas | DWLDL | 1.70 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
| Gimnasia Chivilcoy | LLDWW | 0.80 | 0.60 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 68% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Defensores de Vilelas Win | 34% | 2.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.