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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Defensores De Belgrano vs Acassuso prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Defensores De Belgrano host Acassuso in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Defensores De Belgrano 0–3 Acassuso.
Going into the match, Defensores De Belgrano had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Acassuso had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Defensores De Belgrano's last 10 and 3 of Acassuso's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Defensores De Belgrano averaged 0.85 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Acassuso averaged 0.46 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.89 goals from Defensores De Belgrano and 0.62 from Acassuso. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 39% and an away win at 23%, against 55%, 29% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Defensores De Belgrano (green) and Acassuso (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores De Belgrano | DLWWD | 1.00 | 1.00 | 40% | 40% |
| Acassuso | LWWLL | 0.60 | 1.10 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 May 2026 · Acassuso 1–0 Defensores De Belgrano
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Defensores De Belgrano Win | 54% | 1.70 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 38% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.