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Primera División · Uruguay
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Defensor Sporting host Cerro in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.62, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Defensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro.
Going into the match, Defensor Sporting had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 13. Cerro had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Defensor Sporting's last 10 and 5 of Cerro's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Defensor Sporting averaged 0.79 goals scored and 1.21 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Cerro averaged 0.92 scored and 1.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Defensor Sporting and 1.09 from Cerro. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 31%, against 52%, 28% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Defensor Sporting (green) and Cerro (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | LLWLW | 1.00 | 1.30 | 60% | 30% |
| Cerro | LDLLW | 0.80 | 1.50 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 4 Aug 2026 · Defensor Sporting 2–1 Cerro
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Defensor Sporting Win | 51% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.