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Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
De Graafschap host Jong Utrecht in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) on 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is De Graafschap Win — De Graafschap to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht.
Going into the match, De Graafschap had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 27. Jong Utrecht had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of De Graafschap's last 10 and 9 of Jong Utrecht's last 10; 8 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home De Graafschap averaged 1.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Jong Utrecht averaged 1.43 scored and 2.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.46 goals from De Graafschap and 1.83 from Jong Utrecht. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 28%, against 60%, 21% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between De Graafschap (green) and Jong Utrecht (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | DWLWL | 1.20 | 2.70 | 80% | 80% |
| Jong Utrecht | LWWDL | 1.60 | 2.60 | 90% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.36 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.36 |
| De Graafschap Win | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Over 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 50% | 1.83 |
| De Graafschap HT & FT | 42% | 2.30 |
| 2-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.