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National League - North · England
Darlington 1883 vs Merthyr Town prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Darlington 1883 host Merthyr Town in the National League - North (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Darlington 1883 1–1 Merthyr Town.
Going into the match, Darlington 1883 had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 22. Merthyr Town had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Darlington 1883's last 10 and 7 of Merthyr Town's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Darlington 1883 averaged 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Merthyr Town averaged 0.89 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Darlington 1883 and 1.58 from Merthyr Town. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 44%, against 40%, 25% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darlington 1883 | LDWLL | 1.20 | 2.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Merthyr Town | LLDDW | 1.00 | 1.20 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.