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Primera División · Uruguay
Danubio vs Cerro Largo prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Danubio host Cerro Largo in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Danubio 2–1 Cerro Largo.
Going into the match, Danubio had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Cerro Largo had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Danubio's last 10 and 6 of Cerro Largo's last 10; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Danubio averaged 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Cerro Largo averaged 0.50 scored and 1.20 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from Danubio and 0.64 from Cerro Largo. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 22%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Danubio (green) and Cerro Largo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | LDDDL | 0.60 | 1.30 | 40% | 20% |
| Cerro Largo | WLLDD | 0.70 | 1.20 | 60% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Danubio Win | 47% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.