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Primera División · Uruguay
Danubio vs Central Espanol prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Danubio host Central Espanol in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Danubio 1–0 Central Espanol.
Going into the match, Danubio had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Central Espanol had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Danubio's last 10 and 5 of Central Espanol's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Danubio averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Central Espanol averaged 0.80 scored and 1.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Danubio and 0.74 from Central Espanol. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 20%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Danubio (green) and Central Espanol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | WLWLD | 1.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 30% |
| Central Espanol | LLLLL | 1.10 | 2.00 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Oct 2026 · Central Espanol 0–6 Danubio
- 12 Apr 2026 · Central Espanol 2–2 Danubio
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.73 |
| Danubio Win | 47% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primera División matches that day
- Albion FC vs Atletico Torque · 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Primera División
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30