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Primera División · Peru
Cusco vs Alianza Lima prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cusco host Alianza Lima in the Primera División (Peru) on 11 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cusco 1–2 Alianza Lima.
Going into the match, Cusco had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Alianza Lima had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Cusco's last 10 and 7 of Alianza Lima's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cusco averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Alianza Lima averaged 1.00 scored and 0.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Cusco and 1.24 from Alianza Lima. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%, against 42%, 29% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cusco (green) and Alianza Lima (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | WLWWL | 1.90 | 1.40 | 70% | 70% |
| Alianza Lima | LWLDL | 1.30 | 1.10 | 70% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Apr 2026 · Alianza Lima 8–0 Cusco
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Cusco Win | 41% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.