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Liga Pro Serie B · Ecuador
Cumbayá vs El Nacional prediction and preview
22 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cumbayá host El Nacional in the Liga Pro Serie B (Ecuador) on 22 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Cumbayá Win — Cumbayá to win. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional.
Going into the match, Cumbayá had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 12. El Nacional had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Cumbayá's last 10 and 4 of El Nacional's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cumbayá averaged 1.58 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home El Nacional averaged 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.45 goals from Cumbayá and 0.73 from El Nacional. From that it rates a home win at 75%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 8%, against 64%, 21% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cumbayá (green) and El Nacional (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbayá | WDWWL | 2.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 60% |
| El Nacional | LWLLL | 1.20 | 1.80 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 26 Sep 2026 · El Nacional 0–3 Cumbayá
- 8 Jul 2026 · El Nacional 0–1 Cumbayá
- 24 Apr 2026 · Cumbayá 2–1 El Nacional
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| Cumbayá Win | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.42 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.65 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 48% | 2.00 |
| Cumbayá HT & FT | 45% | 2.05 |
| 2-0 | 14% | 6.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Liga Pro Serie B matches that day
- Deportivo Cuenca Juniors vs Atletico FC · 22 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Liga Pro Serie B
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals · FT 2–2 - San Antonio vs 9 de Octubre · 22 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Liga Pro Serie B
Published pick: Double Chance X2 · FT 3–3 - Cuniburo vs Ind. Juniors · 22 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Liga Pro Serie B
Published pick: Double Chance 1X · FT 2–0