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Serie B · Brazil
Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cuiaba host Ponte Preta in the Serie B (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cuiaba 2–0 Ponte Preta.
Going into the match, Cuiaba had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 10. Ponte Preta had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 2 scored and 25 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Cuiaba's last 10 and 1 of Ponte Preta's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cuiaba averaged 1.36 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Ponte Preta averaged 0.46 scored and 2.92 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.16 goals from Cuiaba and 0.40 from Ponte Preta. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 17% and an away win at 5%, against 80%, 13% and 6% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | LWDWL | 1.50 | 1.00 | 50% | 50% |
| Ponte Preta | LWLLL | 0.20 | 2.50 | 10% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Jun 2026 · Ponte Preta 1–2 Cuiaba
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| Cuiaba HT & FT | 61% | 1.57 |
| Cuiaba 1st Half Win | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.