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Premier League · Russia
CSKA Moscow vs Rodina Moskva prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
CSKA Moscow host Rodina Moskva in the Premier League (Russia) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: CSKA Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moskva.
Going into the match, CSKA Moscow had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 14. Rodina Moskva had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of CSKA Moscow's last 10 and 8 of Rodina Moskva's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home CSKA Moscow averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Rodina Moskva averaged 1.54 scored and 1.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.39 goals from CSKA Moscow and 1.36 from Rodina Moskva. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 20%, against 69%, 17% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between CSKA Moscow (green) and Rodina Moskva (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | WLWDW | 1.60 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
| Rodina Moskva | LWDLL | 1.30 | 2.60 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 81% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| CSKA Moscow Win | 68% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.61 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.66 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 55% | 1.71 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.71 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.