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Serie A · Brazil
Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo prediction and preview
8 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Cruzeiro host Sao Paulo in the Serie A (Brazil) on 8 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Cruzeiro 2–0 Sao Paulo.
Going into the match, Cruzeiro had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 15. Sao Paulo had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 10 of Cruzeiro's last 10 and 5 of Sao Paulo's last 10; 8 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Cruzeiro averaged 1.71 goals scored and 0.82 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Sao Paulo averaged 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Cruzeiro and 0.87 from Sao Paulo. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 19%, against 55%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Cruzeiro (green) and Sao Paulo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Cruzeiro Win | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.