Home › League stats › UEFA Nations League › Croatia vs Spain
UEFA Nations League · International
Croatia vs Spain prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Croatia host Spain in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Spain Win — Spain to win. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Croatia 1–2 Spain.
Going into the match, Croatia had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 22. Spain had won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Croatia's last 9 and 4 of Spain's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Croatia averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Spain averaged 2.00 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.63 goals from Croatia and 2.69 from Spain. From that it rates a home win at 6%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 80%, against 10%, 15% and 76% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Croatia (green) and Spain (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Sep 2026 · Spain 4–1 Croatia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spain Win | 76% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 58% | 2.10 |
| Spain 1st Half Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Spain HT & FT | 56% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.