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Croatia vs England prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Croatia host England in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Croatia 0–7 England.
Going into the match, Croatia had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 8 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 15. England had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Croatia's last 8 and 7 of England's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Croatia averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home England averaged 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Croatia and 3.18 from England. From that it rates a home win at 8%, a draw at 13% and an away win at 79%, against 22%, 24% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 40%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Croatia (green) and England (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 Jun 2026 · England 4–2 Croatia
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| England Win | 54% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.