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League Two · England
Crewe vs Bristol Rovers prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Crewe host Bristol Rovers in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.25, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Crewe 3–1 Bristol Rovers.
Going into the match, Crewe had won 3, drawn 6 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Bristol Rovers had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Crewe's last 10 and 3 of Bristol Rovers's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Crewe averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Bristol Rovers averaged 1.67 scored and 1.56 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.77 goals from Crewe and 0.96 from Bristol Rovers. From that it rates a home win at 55%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 19%, against 30%, 27% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Crewe (green) and Bristol Rovers (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | DWDDD | 1.40 | 1.00 | 70% | 30% |
| Bristol Rovers | WLLWW | 1.50 | 1.40 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.