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Premier League · England
Coventry vs Newcastle prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Coventry host Newcastle in the Premier League (England) on 12 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Coventry 4–1 Newcastle.
Going into the match, Coventry had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Newcastle had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Coventry's last 10 and 8 of Newcastle's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Coventry averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Newcastle averaged 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from Coventry and 1.27 from Newcastle. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 23%, against 30%, 26% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Coventry (green) and Newcastle (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.